Forbidden Donut

Yes. The sky is falling. Oh wait... Shit's on the way back up? Really? Damn, how can we blame Obama now?

I am drunk. That is all.

For what it's worth, the Market seems to be in a holding pattern around 8500-ish. Which is about where it was when we saw "a direct indication of what wall street thinks of Obama."

So I guess wall street got used to the idea of higher taxes and socialism, or they are not the indicator we wanted them to be.

the market must be confused!

Dude i love farmers markets.

Maybe they didn't have to get used to anything. The government was handing out cash like penny candy.

To banks. Who still aren't lending. And who just reported a $33 bn shortfall.

I have no idea why the market is recovering, so I'm using it as a way of painting Investment Bankers as having their heads so far up their asses that they don't know which was is down.

/I can paint this house WAY faster with a brush that broad /biggrin.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":D" border="0" alt="biggrin.gif" /> sweet.

Made my first stock purchases this week. Feels pretty good!

Good luck! Mind if I ask which ones?

Las Vegas Sands - LVS
Palm - Palm

LVS is an undervalued stuck, so are 90% of stocks right now though. I was lucky enough to get in C at 1.03 and LVS at 3.14, haven't sold either yet the plan has been to stay long on both.

Holy crap. Chessface. Does you is still playing gaems?

Way undervalued, but I bought it around 8.5 and sold it around 10. I am with it long as well but I think it will drop back down to 8 a few times before doing anything higher.

Palm is going to Jump when the Pre launch date is officially announced and when it goes on sale and sells out the first week....even though I think ultimately the Pre will not reach long term expecations at all.

Nice job on C...that stuff scares me.

Bill is right.

?

Not so much, full time job that I plan to be at for atleast the next 25 years.... and still trying to live like I was in college.

Today is a really strange day for the DJIA.

GM and Citigroup were removed after GM filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and the market is up 250 points.

Fuck it. Recessions over.

We're officially:
OVER
NINE
THOUSAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAND!

again.

I'm really hoping you are being sarcastic. This is a great time to be disciplined to make money in this market but we are in no way at the end of our "recession". We have major market corrections to go through over the next 5 to 10 years.

[attachment=35:homevalues1.gif]

Of course. This is the thread I come into to be facetious about the stock market.

But it's cool that it's up there... for ... whatever the hell reason it's up there.

Alright then. Are you looking forward to the DOW reaching Gold prices in the future? My bet is at 3700.

Do I look like I know stuff? Shit, all I do is argue with people...

I'm not exactly sure what you mean. DOW reaching gold prices? 3700? This language is unclear to this layman.

/$3701 is my bid, Bob.

What I'm talking about is that the value of the DOW at some point in our future will match the price gold is being sold for. This point is when or overly inflated currency will realign itself with reality.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHLgl0QAE6Y

Watch this and quiver. We haven't seen shit yet and unless there is a complete overhaul of the lives of Americans, things are going to get bad. This guy, Peter Schiff, has a pretty good handle on the situation but with anything always get additional sources. This video is just sick though watching all the nay-saying. Heads in the sand.

I'm inclined to agree, but I doubt the market will chase Gold of all things. But I really don't know enough about to call myself knowledgeable.

Also Peter Schiff has been gloom and dooming his whole career, if it's the guy I'm thinking about. And you know what they say about broken clocks...

I think 3700 is a bit on the extreme end of things. We're a completely unsustainable system. But it will never get to 3700 without some sort of catalyst. If it dropped below 5000 I'd be amazed.

There are reasons for the gloom and doom antics: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzmYI_4XCbM

This image shows the Dow/Gold ratio over time. In 1980, as this graph shows, there was a reset during that recession. [attachment=36:saupload..._vs_gold.png]

I totally believe that in the future we will drop below 5000. What we are doing makes no sense what so ever and it amazes me that everyone is going along with it. These people in charge are not all idiots, so I don't understand how we are still going down this path. Can they be so short sighted to be that concerned about being re elected? I am no conspiracy theorist but are they trying to ruin the country?

I meet people everyday who repeat things like "Oh it will be over in a year...or 2.."

Right....

And those are the reasons it won't fall below 5k. Everyone IS going along with it. The people in charge are still going down this path. They are DEFINITELY short sighted enough to only be concerned with getting re-elected.

Somebody will come up with an obscure financial instrument, people will make billions and we'll be back here in about 20-30 years, and it will be a bigger fall, from higher heights.

If there's one lesson to be learned from history, it's that people don't learn from history.

I thought we were in a deflationary spiral? Or is inflation a concern for the future or something?

Money is not worth anything. Money is ascribed a value based on one thing. That thing is not gold, or silver, or wompum. It's trust. If the value of money is drastically decreasing, that means the global economy is losing faith in us faster than they are in other countries. We managed to take everybody down with us this last time, and we're only going to get more and more coupled to that global economy. This *should* then, make all money more stable in value.

^My theory^
Worth the paper my degree's printed on...
/lulz
//I do like Ron Paul though. But his ideas on the Gold Standard are maddeningly simplistic.

Over the short term deflation is going to occur but what that is truly troubling is hyperinflation. What will happen over the next 6 to 12 months is deflation. This is when you will see house prices fall to true prices and gas may cheapen; however right around the corner is our giant liquidity trap: the housing market. When interest rates are low or zero, the lending of money is made easier and people are able to buy houses, cars, and groceries. When a recession hits and the interest rates are at 0 and the market is FLOODED with assets (businesses, houses, cars, boats, ect...) but noone is lending money, the FED is going to start increasing the money supply. The increase in the money supply is called inflation. This money has gone directly to financial institutions for lending, though no significant lending has occurred. Because these banks have held onto the money they've created a much larger supply which weakens the dollar long term. As the pile of money grows, but is not used and repaid, it begins to lose value. When this occurs we will see hyperinflation.

To your second paragraph, We didn't drag anyone down with us. China will be fine, Russia will be fine, New Zealand will be fine, and they are not as dependent on the US system as we'd like to believe. This is a problem of the United States' people for the United States' people. We've got some international interests wrapped up in our shit but it's our pile.

So what's everyone's take on the market now?

Recently we've had a steady week of closing around 9,500.... is there a large correction in store from all the upward movement? or were the few days of downward and the past week of steadiness after most Q2 earnings that correction?

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have both moved from around .60 a share to over $2.00 a share after FRE posted a Q2 "profit". AIG had a reverse split, trended down for a bit to around $13, and has shot up to $50. Citibank has gone from around $2.00 to over $5.00, and it seems there is strong resistance keeping it above $5.00 now with a higher target price. The "bad companies" that have been held down are rallying, will that hold up? So many questions so many theories :-P.

Still have many retailers that posted substantial losses in the second quarter but are "optimistic about the 3rd quarter due to the economy turning around." I am starting to think some of this is reality, but I have not seen much in the way of prevention for this again. I mean cmon, things have been on an upward trend for decades and then we have our current depression that we're supposedly on the way up and out of again after only 1-2 years?

Consumers have to spend money to get things going again, and arguably businesses have to fail or cutback for reduced spending. Has this actually happened? I haven't seen much capitalism saving our asses here.

Let's get some opinions.

When the Federal Reserve Bank releases its finances, there will probably some downward mobility in the market.

I believe that the machinations of the stock market are too arbitrary to predict, and that you'd have as much luck guessing the number of times the number-phrase 80085 will show up in lottery drawings across the world. Retailers are probably shooting flaming shit from their mouths. If people buy it, the market will go up, and then pop again. If not, the market will reflect reality, which has pretty much never happened ever, in the history of the market. Seriously, "we lost a shit load of money last quarter, but we're confident that our NEXT quarter will be honky-dory because the economy is turning around" sets off all kinds of BS detectors in my head.

Gore has laid off people for the first time that anybody I work with has ever seen.

My opinion is that the stock market is the cause of and solution to our economic woes. And that we're too stupid as a society to care about solving the woes if we can make a personal profit on them.

Over 10,000.

I heard it was because Intel is expected to post better-than-expected 3rd quarter earnings predictions.
/and Caterpillar and JP Morgan

If that's seriously how the Stock Market works, then we're totally fucked in the long term.

totally agree, I have no clue what to expect next out of the market.

I figure that once "the market" realizes what the hell happened, the ensuing confusion will result in lowered confidence and the market will drop upwards of 400 points. Middle-end of next week.

/this thread is now where we make baseless assumptions about the driving forces of "The Market" and see how they pan out.
//who's with me?

lol okay. I assume the government will change its policy on how to value toxic assets so that all the financial companies reporting gains will now be screwed and cause a drop of 3000 over one month.

I think we're a lot more fucked than people realize. The media acts as if we're coming out of the recession. Keynesian Economics is a joke. I think the we're going to be in a terrible spot in a few years.

The next time "The Media" acts anyway as a unit will be the first. I'll agree that we won't be happy in a few years, but I'd like to hear more on your take regarding Keynes than "he's a joke."

Historically speaking, this is difficult to prove, one way or the other.

/edit: and the last time we tried it on any scale similar to this one, it pulled us out of a depression in a matter of years, instead of decades.

It's hard to prove what worked and didn't when there is no control group to compare to. I'm not going to deny that Keynes helped the USA out of the great depression, but I don't think it is safe to say that it turned a matter of decades into years.

Ok, ok. Correction: After 3 years of absolutely no recovery, the new deal started the country off towards a functioning economy. It was overnight by comparison to what was happening before FDR took office.

Decades might be an exaggeration, but prior to the new deal, we weren't looking like we'd ever be a world player again.

I'm not so completely sure about that persay.

I think World War 2 helped out considerably on that front, being one of only two "first world" nations to have made it through that war with its manufacturing base virtually untouched and actually larger than it was when it started(Canada being the other).

That being said, several New Deal projects were ultimately and undoubtedly very instrumental in assisting the US in becoming more of a manufacturing/agricultural powerhouse than it would have likely been able to become otherwise. Specifically the TVA, and other major Hydroelectric/Irrigation projects undertaken during that time. Hard to have fully functional plants if you don't have a power grid capable of supporting them. Likewise on the agriculture projects.

Post WW2 then had Eisenhower and the Interstate Highway System which was actually justified as a national defense initiative, that gave further traction to a lot of work done by the New Deal.

I'd be dubious on saying the New Deal itself pulled the US out of its economic slump any faster than it would have if no intervention had been made by the government, and generally agree with some of the arguments that it may have slightly prolonged it. However, the long term outcome was that it set the stage for comparatively explosive growth over the decades that followed.

So basically you're arguing short-term versus long-term. Up to a point, New Deal type policies work very well on the long-term side(decades). On the short term end of the scale, those policies seem to be lacking as they don't really create economic growth themselves, they simply create the avenues by which future growth may occur(once the economy recovers on its own).

"Up to a point" is also a major factor, as the level of success to be found with those kinds of policies is going to be largely contingent on the status/quality of the national infrastructure/other services going into it. If they're in poor/overused condition, dumping lots of money into it can pay huge dividends in years to come... However, if you follow the path of Japan for example... If the things you are improving upon are in a good condition in the first place, the results you obtain are going to be pretty lackluster, it'll create jobs while the work takes place, but once the work is done those jobs will be gone and nothing else of significance will follow suit for a long time(such as building bridges to nowhere).

Of course, the other problem with looking at things like the stimulus bill congress passed at the start of this year and its effectiveness is that the spending part(rather than the obligating funds part) for all of that money doesn't really start to kick into gear until next year... Just in time for the elections.

Wouldn't it be great if they could get another second stimulus bill passed because the first one hasn't done much... And use it to immediately fund(it is an election year next year after all) all those projects that are now much closer to "shovel ready" thanks to everyone making a run for funding from the first round? (I'm specifically looking at the TIGER projects that communities had to submit proposals for by the 15th of September -- I know in my area it resulted in local planning agencies going for funding a project that was initially planned for ~2020 as that was when they expected the need to be so bad they'd be able to justify and fund it, I'm sure they're not that unique in this)

Going to be interesting to see what comes in the world of government funded projects this next year.

Being one of the only industrialized countries left after WWII surely helped. Starting after WWII anyway. But what happened between 1933 and 1942 is not an accident:

/labels are mine

That graph also looks like a fair argument for precisely the opposite of what you claim:


Especially when you argue in other threads that social security spending is out of control, which would qualify as a negative long term effect of TND, while the increase in employment, decrease in deficit, and increase in GDP would qualify as positive short term effects.

And no. It wouldn't be great if they got another stimulus bill passed, since much of the money from the first still hasn't been spent yet.

New Deal Policies are only partially about actually improving our infrastructure and setting the stage for the *next big thing*. Which in the case of TND was likely the boon of manufacturing that flourished post WWII. We had just gone apeshit after the Industrial Revolution and had no idea how to handle ourselves economically with the level of growth we were experiencing and subsequently got burned over it. But we had the technology still, and the demand was still there (even if the money wasn't) and then we built up our capabilities right before all our competitors were blown away. Sure, I can buy that. So we should posture ourselves for the next big thing now and be sure that there isn't sufficient competition in that market.

Meanwhile, that is just a pipe dream, and we lucked out post-WWII. What the new deal, and this stimulus bill, are really about is putting people back to work. If they can work on things that benefit the country as a whole, then that's awesome. But having people taxably employed is pretty awesome on it's own.

I'm going to cast shells and bones to the ground and make completely ignorant assumptions from which I can draw conclusions to fit my world view. Cause I'm having a bad day. Enjoy:

Between 1/19/2001 and 1/16/2009 the market rose a bunch then fell a bunch.
Net Change: -2306.37 points or -21.78%

Between 1/16/2009 and today the market fell a bunch then started rising.
Net Change: +2144.18 points or +25.89%

Anybody want to argue about stuff?

I see no correlation with Us or world events.

So this is pretty cool.

Think we'll learn? Maybe we're learning /biggrin.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":D" border="0" alt="biggrin.gif" />