Forbidden Donut

I think you and everybody else who has been saying this is completely moronic. The man isn't president yet. And the thinking, rational world was 90%+ certain he was going to win it a month ago.

But no, the market is so simple that people will sell low after buying high because they might have to pay higher taxes in a couple months on part of their investment if they decide to pull out certain kinds of stocks in certain situations while taxes are higher. mmhm. There are no other factors that contribute to the rise and fall of the market, and there haven't been 500+ point jumps up and down for the past 30 days. We were doing hunky dory til the election.

You're not this stupid are you?

What's that you say? You are just jumping on the Obama hate bandwagon? Cool. Remember this? When you said that the big crash that started the HOUR the bailout was passed wasn't the fault of the bailout? You were all correlation=/=causation then... when it was a Bush policy. And Corporate Welfare...

First off, insult me more why don't you. You may have a decent theoretical understanding of how the market works, but you have ZERO experience. You have ZERO knowledge of what us 'greedy wall-streeters' think. And guess what? Us here on wall street, for the most part, control the market. Argue what you want, your econ 101 teacher probably alluded to that when you discussed the difference between short selling and selling a stock.

The market was relatively flat before the election. For two reasons, people wanted to see what was going to happen come 11/4 and that the influx of money (gov't) started hitting wall street and financial companies in need.

Let me tell you, a bunch of new hedge funds are down this year, but up from previous years. And personal investors? They're not new to this game, either. Most people are still UP from 10 years ago. Why do you think SAC and GL withdrew their monies and closed their books earlier in the year? Because they all wanted to play golf? People here understand the correlation between risk and reward, and maybe you should learn that sometimes you have to cut your losses.

You're such an inept 'investor' that it's incredibly hard to explain something to you. Pick up freakonomics and think you know more than those who are employed in the sector? Do I claim that since I have grilled once or twice that I'm a better chef than Charlie Palmer?

The market IS simple to understand, and what we are witnessing is something called 'pricing' -- where people try to predict the future and weigh it into their current investments.

These are NOT coincidences.

tactful. You asked what I thought. I told you. Sorry you didn't like it?

Those employed in the sector got us here in the first place. They are totally the smartest people EVAR.

Again, you're logic, let me show you it:
Market plummets several hundred points after the bailout. "no correletion."
Market plummets several hundred points after the election. "Obama sucks and is bad for America."

Way to be, guy. Way to be.



J = Bailout
D = Election

Care to explain why the bailout wasn't responsible for the big drop then, but Obama's responsible for the smaller drop now? Or are you just gonna keep blowing sunshine out of your ass because you have a jorb in the sector and this translates to "authority?"

I know you're very smart, and that you know a whole lot about how the market works. I also think you're a shill and will be ragging on every bad thing in this country being Obama's fault for the next 8 years, and since he hasn't even made a single policy yet and you're already blaming him for stuff I'm even more inclined to think that.

Also, yeah those totally are coincidences. That's how we define things that appear to be connected but have no real evidence other than a correlative position on a timeline.

I'd also like to add:

Markets plummet on news that Ted Stevens will appeal his conviction! This is a direct indication of what the market will look like for the duration of his appeal! My personal estimate is that we will all be eating catfood in 2 years! Where did we go wrong! WHYYYYYYYY.

Basically all I'm saying with all this snark is this. Settle down chicken little.

It certainly couldn't have been that the worst month of sales in 8 years happened in October could it? Nope. It was Obama. I don't follow this crap this closely so I didn't have this info handy, but it took about 30 seconds of searching to find a... you know... good reason... based loosely on what I like to call "reality".

I'd also like to add that anybody who is selling now because of the increase in capital gains taxes on the 20th are doing the following:
Losing money now so they don't have to worry about potentially losing money later. I'd call that pretty short sighted. What if the market improves in two years, then their stocks would be UP and they'd actually have a capital gain to tax. Right now they are just straight up losing money. I don't think that's what's happening.

/rant edit:
you know. This is only making me more and more annoyed as the day wears on. Why the FUCK would people sell at a loss now to avoid taxes in the future? That's just stupid. Let's look at the process Obama has to follow to increase capital gains taxes in the first place. He has to draft legislation, put it in front of the legislative branch (that isn't filibuster proof), and get it passed through two houses of corporately bought out and corrupt politicians, then he has to sign it. This doesn't magically become law on 1/20/09 man. And why sell now and not wait until December to see if the market gets better if you're already taking on losses NOW? If you wanna talk about president's effects on the market look at the 90's. Guess who was in charge then. And besides, Bush's capital gains tax cuts wear off in 55 days. Before Obama takes office. Where was the reaction to THAT piece of news if everybody on wallstreet is shitting their pants over higher taxes?

Blaming 8 years of failed economic policies on the guy who hasn't even been inaugurated yet? Totally logical.

I'm still trying to figure out what butt hurt Republican's are going to complain about when the market has a good day. Anyone's guess i suppose.

Nothing. Nobody complains on a good day =D.

Ron Paul does! But you know...who cares about foresight when we're rolling in the money?

Foresight is so overrated, hindsight is where it's at.

Well... I guess that's complaining, but he's unique. He's one of the few that actually cares.

Mostly I don't intervene on this sort of stuff because everyone has different perspectives. But Andrew has a point here. Take out all the semantics of the argument and look at it in terms of logic. If you believe that one event correlates to another on the basis of concurrence, then all other events should correlate with the same relationship on the basis of concurrence. You have provided no evidence otherwise, so your logic is false, which makes you look like an ass when you start babbling about how your logic is better than his based on personal knowledge. Logic is backed by knowledge, but from your standpoint it seems like knowledge is backed logic. Awful.

And just because I believe you started this thread in spite of the election results, let me tell you something. I think most of your so claimed "wall-streeters" are retarded and a hindrance to this countries' economy by making more bad decisions than good ones, including you. If any particular person or group of people actually caused today's market drop, it is you, not Obama. Stop shifting blames. I think you should wait until Obama has a reasonable amount of time in the office to make changes before you say anything else. How can you judge someone's presidency without actually seeing his presidency? That's what I call judging a book by its cover. For all we know, he could turn out to be just like Bush or like Wilson.

Here is the main point of my statement. Republican's i know are going to scrutinize every single misstep Obama makes. They want to essentially turn him into as much of a screw up as Bush (Not possible in my opinion). If it's not the economy then it will be something else.

He gets the benefit of the doubt until he screws up. If any foreigners get mad at my President I will defend him as a good American and a good man, but I damn well should be able to criticize him myself if I have legitimate reasons.

You have every right to criticize him, and you should every single time he fucks up.

That being said, nationalism is stupid and dangerous, so don't let it force you into defending anyone that hasn't earned it.

Thats was also my point. Most people who oppose him will not give him that benefit. If they aren't bitching about the stock market, there is a long list of pety irrelevant things they will fall back on. In other words, many Republican's won't even give him a chance, much like most Democrat's never game Bush a chance for his second term.

Jeeeez.

I think it would be fair to say that you are both right.

The market probably did drop because of Obama's election, and the market probably did drop because of other reasons as well.

Obama's policies are not great for the market so it would make sense for the market to drop once he was elected. People react to a lot of things, often small, so I think dismissing the election results(One of the most important and biggest events of the last few years) as not having any significant impact on the market would be a bit naive.

Also, there is no need to make these discussions personal.

(And I do see the market going below 7500 again, not sure how fast though)

Bush had his chance during his first term, and he fucked everything up.

Why not?

I don't think anyone was judging someone's presidency out right. What markets do is take all the information they have into account at any given time, and act on it. On november 4/5 they received the information that Obama was going to be president. The market can only assume what policies will be written into law and how they will affect them with the information they have now. Sure, Obama could kick ass and make everyone rich, but it is possible, that right now, wall streeters do not think that is going to be the case for them.


Also, Anunes, on your point on coincidences and such.

I believe you are trying to make the case that because someone said the bailout wasn't the reason the market crashed, and thus not correlated, that Obama's couldn't be either. Or, more specifically you are saying that Mungo and many other analysts are saying what they are saying because they want to back one party/president/person and blame(or not blame them) for the market crashing.

These people don't sit around thinking about what they can say or do to back an idea. They sit around thinking about money, and what they should do in the future to make more.

Those people read the news yes? That's how they decide what the markets doing, yes? What news do they read? Apparently they read things that say the sky will fall when capital gains taxes go up. No need to understand Obama's plan, or wait to see if he even has the support of the congress (who are bought out D & R both), or even to look at history and see that they were making more money that was worth more when CGT's were at Reagan or Clinton levels. Nope. I'm just going to ignore all perspective and history and logic and go straight to being scurred of the darky and his scurry policies.

If these people are that stupid then we SHOULD take all their money away and give it to poor people. They don't deserve it. I don't think they are that stupid, so the only explanation left is that they are just trying to shift blame to the democrats, which has been the strategy of republicans and their kin for decades. It's occam's razor, mang.

There are PLENTY of reasons that could be given for a downturn. Those stories don't play as well as ZOMGOBAMA, especially in the crowd that's reading that news. So we don't hear about the terrible sales in October completely changing companies '09 forcasts. You don't hear that a couple dozen companies had to renegotiate shit with the FCC to stay afloat.

A couple years ago (I forget a lot of the specifics) a magazine like forbes or something published a story about bad sales for a company. That company proceeded to go bankrupt. They had actually had record high sales that year. The media has more power to manipulate the markets than the investors when the investors let themselves be manipulated.

I ask again. Why are Obama's policies not good for the market?

To be honest Andrew, I think you immediately took this thread out of context, and I don't think you're really arguing against Mungo's legitimate point so much as defending Obama from an attack that wasn't made.

Maybe Mungo does think Obama's economic policies are the suck, but he didn't say that here. He said, as the only person on these forums that has the experience to do so, that wall street was unhappy that Obama was elected, and their reaction to the results led to plummeting stocks. Whether wall street's concerns are legitimate are irrelevant in the context of this thread.

The fact is, wall street will always choose deregulation over regulation. They will always choose corporate tax cuts. They will always support the candidate that wants to do as little as possible to get in their way. So it isn't ridiculous at all to assume that they did not support Obama, and were unhappy when he was elected. I guarantee you that everyone on wall street is confident that the market would right itself if Washington would just get off their backs, and Obama clearly has no intention of doing that.

Fair enough, but the point is broader than that. Not only do I not believe that Obama's policies will be bad for wall street. I also think that nobody on wallstreet worth a damn is stupid enough to take as staggering a loss as they'd have to to avoid a potential tax increase. That's just plain dumb.

The point being made is basically:
The lack of regulation in the financial markets has lead to a golden age of investment, where stocks go up so far so fast that everyone in the market is a millionaire. It is quite reasonable that investors would be afraid to see all this come to an end.

I reread your posts Drew, and I misinterpreted your intentions. I apologize for my retaliation. However, I still believe that wall street are heading the wrong direction, as they have often. I do believe however that it won't ever go below 8000 before his presidency, and pending his presidency, it could then go either way from there. Like you said, it could go below 7500, but I think not until his presidency has had some time. But it could also skyrocket back to 10,000+.

No hard feeling's Tom. I'll concede that there's plenty of reactionary douches on Wall st. and that there's usually a slump right after a new POTUS is elected, and that the markets local volatility (due to a vast number of factors) multiplied that effect. But this "this is the shape of things to come" doomsaying chicken little crap needs to stop until the man's inaugurated at LEAST.

But back at mungo, who appears to have run away from this thread...

ahem

So now that the market's back up to almost 9k, are we going to credit that to Obama too? Or is that market forces in action?

My theory is that after 8 years of hearing how crappy their team has done republicans are just super eager to return the favor. They should just wait a bit first or I'm going to promptly ignore them when he actually does something worth bitching about.

Drew. Not Andrew. Learn to read, noob.

Mungo's name is Drew?

There is a reason why everyone doesn't make money on wall street. If everything was so easily explainable then we would all know how to invest our money and we would all be filthy rich.

I love conspiracies. They excite me. They make me think "what if that is really true that would be crazy". I am cynical and second guess/don't trust a lot of things. But exactly who is the "they" you are referring to? The way you talk, you make it sound like these people get up in the morning, all meet up in a room that is covered in Obama posters with red Xs through his face, sit down and commence a meeting of how to make Obama look bad that day.

Here's one. Here's another. Here's one you might consider part of "they". They are the republican loyalist shills. It is their job (or they feel it is anyway) to promote republicans (not republican ideals) and to decry the most minor slight from the left as an affront to America.

Most of it comes from Limbaugh, Drudge and Hannity and trickles down from there.

This entire subject of "zomg Obama is killin' teh marquets!" point comes to us from Drudge.

And Limbaugh.


Now if they were ever ever ever ever right ever... I might not hate these people so much. But they aren't. Ever.

Hopefully y'all can understand why I was a bit annoyed when not half an hour after I read Limbaugh's nonsense and the counterarguments, I come here and see that mungo is faithfully repeating it for all of us to read and take at face value because he's more of an expert than anybody else here.

/tinfoil.

Five year low. After yesterdays five year low.
Make of that what you will puny humans!

Below 7k anyone?

noooooot quite yet. Give it til tomorrow.

citibank can EABOD.

You know..I know everyone probably says this, but...if I had the money I would have made a lot of cash in the stock market this past year and some previous years. I mean, if you shorted the market this year(which I totally would have...) you would have made a killing.

Investing with only a few dollars is not worth it especially when you will probably need the money in the short term. If only I was rich so I could get richer.

Well the company that I have my 401k with has sent me a kit for dealing with the current Stock Market situation.

The kit consists of three tubes of KY Jelly and a small pillow to bite down on.

I loled. Everywhere. /laugh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":lol:" border="0" alt="laugh.gif" />

In retrospect, this is probably funnier than it has any right to be.

What, you mean that all of the shit talking and blaming and flaming that goes on here... is actually about issues that could steal all of your savings? Or cause you to not have a job when we get out of college? Or lose your current job? Watch out for that roof over your head too, cause houses are going left and right.

Or the post he quoted with a funny joke in it.

lol Red

Market's up over 250 points today. Over 8k for the first time in 2 months.

Yup, I am betting it dips below 8000 again tho.

I just opened up a online brokerage account...time to gamble!

For very different reasons than Obama being elected. To bring up my quote from right after the election proves nothing. This has more to do with consumer confidence, riding the rally, FASB, better earnings repors, and the G20.



Where did you open it?

I brought up the quote to point out that it was more or less retarded to blame the fall on Obama. Then, true to form, you pop in here to say not that maybe that wasn't accurate, but that the rise has to do with everything but him and his policies.

I suppose when consumer confidence was down you thought it was all the doomsaying coming from the Presnit. And that the president's policies have a direct correlation with market falls, but rallies are independent from the government completely. And that earnings reports are a sign of the benefits of capitalism when they are up, but when they are sagging it's a sign that businesses are afraid of the evil socialist in office.

Please tell me you see how ridiculous this looks. Seriously.

Don't be nearsighted. You can't deny that on Nov 6, the reaction was because of his election. Whether or not that was justified is another story -- one that I never took a stance on here.

This biggest moving factor has been banks, yes, who've received TARP funds from Obama -- which has helped the stock prices move upwards.

Earnings reports are completely independent from the gov't intervention -- at least with the companies that have reported so far.

I mentioned the G20 as part of the rally, yet you seem to think that I'm so radically republican that I can't admit when Obama does something right; this is insulting. The fact that you have a hard time admitting that there are other factors involved that influence a market, and a true capitalist market, that are further reaching than the President.

No. I can, in fact, deny that on Nov. 6, the reaction was because of his election. I can do this because:
The market isn't that simple by your own admission.

Basically you've said that when the market fell after the bailout under Bush, things were some complex that mere mortals such as myself couldn't possibly understand it and that there were so many factors that it couldn't be pinned on the bailout. Then you said that when the markets fell after Obama was elected (not when he was inaugurated mind you) that it was an entirely correlative occurrence. Now the rally that has been going on for the last 2 to 3 weeks we're back to "too complicated to say".



I won't deny that there are factors other than out president at play. Not even when things are great. But you sure seemed ready to say that he was the only factor when things sucked. Weird.

edit: I'd just like to see you be consistent.

TradeKing because I am only using a small amount of money so that fees hurt me more than someone trading larger quantities.

Just decided that I would have made a lot of money if I put my money where my mouth was....of course now I am going to get it all wrong.

I have an scottrade account and the last few weeks i been make lots of money lol picked up some really dirt cheap stocks that used to be very high and now they are glowing back up in price woot /smile.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":)" border="0" alt="smile.gif" />

Yeah a little late to the party.

Like I said..all through the crash I was talking but not spending...not really sure why..I guess the act of buying stocks and such intimidates me..so this is all new territory to me.

I guess its because I would put my money on what makes sense...while other people are researching the fuck out of everything...so i feel like i am in the dark i guess

I don't need to make money, I have credit cards.

Just dont put those blinders on and spends lot know when it take a step back and look at the big pic .. /smile.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":)" border="0" alt="smile.gif" />

Things will get better in the long run it might take years months weeks days how ever it is takeing by today world but things will get better and by doing something now you could be set for down the road but then again thing could hit the fan down the road too jsut keep an open mind and your should be ok ..

Bad practices aside, I give you 10/10. I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

-dan